The impact of changes in fiscal and monetary policies on debt sustainability: a macroeconometric model with debt sustainability indicators

Prasanth, C. and Joseph, T. J. and Gopakumar, K. U. (2025) The impact of changes in fiscal and monetary policies on debt sustainability: a macroeconometric model with debt sustainability indicators. JOURNAL OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. ISSN 0972-5792

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Abstract

Public debt sustainability has garnered importance in the macroeconomic policy making of India, especially since the 1980s. This paper discusses the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to tackle the issue of debt sustainability considering the inter-dependencies between various macroeconomic indicators under the four sectors: the real, monetary, fiscal, and external sectors. To this end, we estimate a structural equation model with 14 equations, which is further incorporated into the debt sustainability analysis using an indicator-based approach. The structural equations are estimated using the generalised method of moments, and the data cover annual samples for central government finances from 1981-82 through 2019-20. The simulation exercises reveal that fiscal policy is more effective than monetary policy in improving the debt sustainability indicators of India. Further, fiscal policy through changes in capital expenditure is found to outperform policy action through changes in revenue expenditure.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Public debt sustainability, Structural macroeconomic model, Indicator-based approach, Generalised method of moments, Fiscal policy, E12, E17, E60, E63, H200
Subjects: Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Economics
Social Sciences > Development Studies
Divisions: Interdisciplinary Studies > Vinayaka Mission's School of Health Systems, Chennai > Hospital Administration
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email techsupport@mosys.org
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2026 07:12
URI: https://ir.vmrfdu.edu.in/id/eprint/6995

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